High school football predictions for Week 5

This week, the games mean even more.

Conference play begins for four of Robeson County’s five high school football teams on Friday night, with the lone holdout, Red Springs, starting league play next week.

These are the games in which conference championships are won or lost, and in which playoff resumes are cemented or crumble. These are the games that are discussed years down the road.

The start of conference play is even cooler, and more meaningful, for the two Robeson County teams who open Southeastern Athletic Conference play against each other, Fairmont and St. Pauls, in an in-county rivalry.

As we prepare for Week 5, here are some predictions:

Last week: 3-0

This season: 11-3

Fairmont at St. Pauls

As noted in my game preview story, both teams are looking to replicate one half from last week’s games as they face off at G.S. Kinlaw Stadium Friday. But while Fairmont had a decent first-half performance against Southern Lee, that 24 minutes still pales in comparison to the second half played by St. Pauls last week, a near-perfect half of football to turn a tied game into a 42-13 win.

Fairmont coach Lonnie Cox is right when he says defensive coordinator Eric Gould has had some level of success against the Bulldogs. But even in last year’s game, in which St. Pauls was held to arguably its worst offensive game of the season, the Bulldogs still emerged with the victory.

There’s no question in my mind Fairmont will be up for this game, but that won’t quite be enough to hang with the Bulldogs, winners of 16 of their last 17 games in the regular season.

St. Pauls 35, Fairmont 12

Cape Fear at Lumberton

Before the season, I predicted Cape Fear would finish second in the United-8 Conference. A loss to E.E. Smith may have shed some doubt on that prediction, though the Colts have since earned a quality nonconference win over Terry Sanford.

Lumberton, meanwhile, has continued its struggles from the last few years through its nonconference slate, with losses to Fairmont, Hoke County and Laney.

The Pirates have shown a few small glimpses of potential, for a play or a drive, and they will at the very least be more competitive in conference play than the last two years. But being competitive is different from winning games against the league’s top tier.

Cape Fear 34, Lumberton 14

Purnell Swett at Gray’s Creek

Both of these teams are much improved from seasons past, with Gray’s Creek off to a 3-0 start and the Rams at 2-1. The Bears wins haven’t necessarily been against traditional powers, but their combined records are 6-5, with three of those losses to the Bears, and every team is at .500 or above.

Purnell Swett’s wins over Seaforth and Fairmont were a breath of fresh air for a program that’s struggled for the last several years, but they aren’t quite as impressive as the Gray’s Creek resume.

You’d have to imagine Gray’s Creek coach Jon Sherman will have some extra motivation against his former team, and the Bears’ rushing attack which averages over 300 yards per game should make a difference here. Purnell Swett will win some conference games, but not against this potential surprise contender.

Gray’s Creek 28, Purnell Swett 16

Mullins at Red Springs

On a personal note, it’s neat to see my hometown of Mullins, South Carolina, and a school I attended for one year play against one of the schools I cover. Despite close proximity, this is Mullins’ first football game against any current Robeson County high school.

Neither team has won a game this fall; Red Springs has played the opposition close, however, in two of its three losses, while the Auctioneers’ closest game, against a relatively similar level of competition, has been a 20-point loss.

The heartbreak of the Red Devils’ losses to Douglas Byrd and Wilson Prep may translate to a more comfortable feeling in a close game, which this definitely could be. And that could translate to the team’s first win under coach Tim Ray.

Red Springs 14, Mullins 8