Predictions for the 38th Robeson County Shootout

PEMBROKE — Robeson County’s biggest sporting event of the year is here. While it’s undoubtedly a busy week for yours truly, it’s my favorite week of the year in local sports.

Some 22 games will be played across five days as the Robeson County Shootout commences on Tuesday, wrapping up with two championship tilts Saturday at UNC Pembroke’s English E. Jones Center.

Who will be in those games and claim the title of Shootout champion? Will there be a surprise run or will the favorites prevail? In the buildup to the tournament, many take their guesses of what will happen up and down the Shootout brackets. Here’s my picks for the 38th annual tournament.

Boys tournament

First round

St. Pauls at Red Springs — The first round’s lone in-county matchup pits two teams that, as of this writing, are winless. St. Pauls has a little bit more experience by comparison, and many Bulldogs players are used to playing big games — albeit on the football field — and that will make the difference in a St. Pauls win.

Whiteville at Lumberton — As Lumberton coach Bryant Edwards goes against his Columbus County roots — and facing the school where his brother is principal — the Pirates will have a talent advantage, while Whiteville has only played three games. I don’t see Lumberton having any issue.

Pinecrest at Purnell Swett — Pinecrest is playing better since getting its football players back, and will have a post advantage with Elijah Melton as it faces the Rams. The 2023 runners-up advance.

Dillon at Fairmont — Dillon is another team that hasn’t played much, and the results it does have haven’t been particularly good. Fairmont is comfortable in this tournament — they won it last season, and they’ll move on here.

Consolation round

Whiteville at Red Springs — Like Red Springs’ first-round matchup, this could also be a pairing of winless teams. Coach Glenn Patterson Jr. said a win or two would make for a good Shootout for his team, and I think this is where they’ll get one.

Purnell Swett vs. Dillon (at Fairmont) — While Purnell Swett is an underdog against Pinecrest, the Rams always seem to find a little extra in the Shootout. They’ll want to get to one of the games at UNCP, which will require a win here, and their guard will find a way.

Semifinals

St. Pauls at Lumberton — As St. Pauls coach Ted Gaskins returns to Lumberton, where he spent a decade and a half as head coach and won two Shootout titles, he’ll do so with a team that’s struggled so far this year. Lumberton’s reached the final in a record 18 of the previous 37 tournaments, and will do so again.

Pinecrest vs. Fairmont (at Purnell Swett) — A 2023 championship rematch comes in the semifinals, and will have a similar result. Fairmont contained Pinecrest’s offense last year, and will have the intensity to do so again and reach the Shootout final for a 14th time.

Championship round (at UNCP)

Fifth place: Red Springs vs. Purnell Swett — Both teams are led by their guard play and looking for answers on the inside. The one-two punch of Collin Sampson and Jeremiah Barnes in the Rams backcourt will be the difference here, though; Rams win.

Third place: St. Pauls vs. Pinecrest — When the Bulldogs and Patriots met in the semifinals last year, Pinecrest controlled the game. The talent gap between the teams has grown since, and the Patriots will head back to Moore County with a second game win in the tournament.

Championship: Lumberton vs. Fairmont — In what would be the fifth Shootout championship game between the two programs since 2013, this is a hard pick to make, with the teams having split a pair of previous meetings already this season. Since the ups and downs of the first few games, Lumberton is beginning to play more comfortably and thus more efficiently, which can help them to get back on the right side of the scoreboard in the rubber match. Fairmont will no doubt have plenty to say, and has the talent to win this tournament, but ultimately the Pirates will break their tie with Fairmont and Purnell Swett for the most Shootout titles and win their ninth.

Girls tournament

First round

St. Pauls at Red Springs — To say St. Pauls has dominated the series of late is an understatement. Sorry, Red Devils, but I haven’t seen a reason to believe the outcome will be different.

Whiteville at Lumberton — The Wolfpack have struggled through their early season stretch, while Lumberton is making up for relative inexperience by playing hard and together. Pirates advance.

Pinecrest at Purnell Swett — Pinecrest’s defense and strong backcourt of Aniyah McGregor and Kennedy Moore will lead the way and the Patriots, who won the first girls Shootout title in 1993, will return in style.

Dillon at Fairmont — This game will have the quality of one typically seen later in the tournament, with pair of teams who entered play on Friday with perfect records. Fairmont has the potential to be even better than it was last year, and while it won’t be easy for the defending champs against the Wildcats, they’ll advance.

Consolation round

Whiteville at Red Springs — In a fun post matchup between Red Springs’ Monica Washington and Whiteville’s Ceonna Dennis, the Red Devils’ other seniors will complement Washington enough to earn the win.

Purnell Swett vs. Dillon (at Fairmont) — A Dillon team that has a tough first-round draw would be out to avenge their first loss of the season in this matchup, and with much of last year’s conference-championship team back, the Wildcats will advance here.

Semifinals

St. Pauls at Lumberton — Lumberton is playing better than it has in recent years, making this a sneaky-good game. But no one’s been better in the Shootout semifinals in the last few years than St. Pauls, and a seasoned bunch of Bulldogs will win again in the round to reach their fifth straight Shootout championship, matching a Lumberton record (1999-03; 2014-18).

Pinecrest vs. Fairmont (at Purnell Swett) — Both of these teams are good on the defensive end, but Fairmont is the harder team to stop. With defending tournament MVP Taniya Simms down low and a terrific amount of backcourt depth for a 2A high school roster, the Golden Tornadoes will beat the Patriots to set up a championship rematch with St. Pauls.

Championship round (at UNCP)

Fifth place: Red Springs vs. Dillon — Dillon has been playing well to start the season, while Red Springs has struggled. Those trends suggest a Wildcats victory.

Third place: Lumberton vs. Pinecrest — Both sides have good guard play, but it will be the post production of Andrea Brown for Lumberton that makes the difference as the Pirates take third.

Championship: St. Pauls vs. Fairmont — St. Pauls is a terrific basketball team who will go far and do big things this season. But Fairmont won three out of the four meetings last year, including the Shootout final, and led the other before a huge Bulldogs comeback; St. Pauls lost county Player of the Year Jashontae Harris to graduation, while Fairmont has gotten better and deeper. St. Pauls won’t go quietly and this should still be a fantastic game, but I think the Golden Tornadoes go back-to-back.